In a new study, researchers created a new risk-stratification tool that can accurately predict the likelihood of deterioration in adults with severe COVID-19.
They say the online tool could support clinicians’ decision making—helping to improve patient outcomes and ultimately save lives.
The research was conducted by a team from the UK Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium.
In the study, the tool was developed using data from 74,944 individuals with COVID-19 admitted to 260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales, between February 6 and August 26, 2020.
The researchers assess 11 measurements routinely collected from patients, including age, gender, and physical measurements (such as oxygen levels) along with some standard laboratory tests and calculates a percentage risk of deterioration, known as the ‘4C Deterioration Score’.
Furthermore, researchers assessed how well the tool performed in nine regions and found that it performed similarly well in each, suggesting that it is likely to be useful across the NHS.
Importantly, the new risk score showed superior performance across the NHS, in comparison to previous risk scores.
The ‘4C Mortality Score’ is already recommended for use by NHS England to guide anti-viral treatments (Remdesivir).
Doctors will now see both the ‘4C Deterioration Score’ and the ‘4C Mortality Score’ at the same time, using the same tool.
The team says accurate risk-stratification at the point of admission to the hospital will give doctors greater confidence about clinical decisions and planning ahead for the needs of individual patients.
The addition of the new 4C Deterioration Score alongside the 4C Mortality Score will provide clinicians with an evidence-based measure to identify those who will need increased hospital support during their admission, even if they have a low risk of death.
Researchers suggest that the tool could also be used in other countries for risk-stratification, but should first be evaluated to test its accuracy in these settings.
One author of the study is Professor Mahdad Noursadeghi (UCL Infection & Immunity).
The study is published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine.
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