In a new study, researchers estimate the infection death rate of COVID-19 more than double estimates from other countries, with the greatest risk to older adults.
This is one of the most robust studies of COVID-19 mortality risk in the United States.
The research was conducted by a team at Columbia University and elsewhere.
In the study, the team used a computer model to analyze mortality data, including 191,392 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and 20,141 confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths occurred among New York City residents from March 1-May 16, 2020.
They estimated an overall infection fatality rate (IFR) of 1.45% in New York City, from March 1-May 16, 2020—in other words, between 1% and 2% of New Yorkers infected with COVID-19 including those with no or mild symptoms died during this period.
The new estimate is more than double the IFR previously reported elsewhere (e.g., about 0.7% in both China and France where most IFR estimates have come from). So far, IFR in the U.S has been unclear.
The new study finds mortality risk was highest among older adults, with IFR of 4.67% for 65-74-year-olds and 13.83% for 75+ year-olds.
Younger people had far lower chances of dying from the disease: 0.011% among those younger than 25 and 0.12% among 25-44-year-olds.
However, the risk to young people should not be taken lightly, especially given cases of post-infection Multi-system Inflammatory Syndrome in Children.
The team found New York City has among the most complete and reliable data on COVID-19 deaths—specialists review all death certificates and rapidly record deaths into a unified electronic reporting system.
For this reason, the new estimate likely more accurately reflects the true higher burden of death due to COVID-19.
Further, given the likely stronger public health infrastructure and healthcare systems in New York City than many other places, the higher IFR estimated in the new study suggests that mortality risk from COVID-19 may be even higher elsewhere in the United States, and likely other countries as well.
The study is published on the pre-print server medRxiv ahead of peer review.
Copyright © 2020 Knowridge Science Report. All rights reserved.
