In two new studies, researchers suggest that the warm summer months will not strongly slow the novel coronavirus as it spreads around the globe.
They found neither temperature nor latitude altered COVID-19 infection rates. However, school closures and other public health measures did.
The research was conducted by a team at the University of Toronto.
American researchers from MIT came to a similar conclusion in a paper that has not yet been peer-reviewed.
They found that summer weather is not likely to halt the transmission of the COVID-19 coronavirus.
They say even though high temperatures and humidity can moderately reduce the transmission rates of coronavirus, the pandemic is not likely to diminish solely due to summer weather.
For Canadian researchers, the finding that hotter weather doesn’t reduce COVID-19 cases was surprising.
They had conducted a preliminary study that suggested both latitude and temperature could play a role. But when they repeated the study under much more rigorous conditions, we got the opposite result.
The results showed little or no association between latitude or temperature with a rise in COVID-19 cases and a weak association between humidity and fewer cases.
But school closures, social distancing, and restrictions of large gatherings have helped control cases.
In the U.S. study, the team analyzed data on virus transmission and weather statistics across more than 3,700 locations between last December and April 22.
They found only a slightly lower transmission risk, about a 1.7% reduction per 1 degree Fahrenheit, once temperatures rose above 77 degrees F.
The finding underscores the need to continue social distancing, quarantining, and hand-washing as many U.S. states plan to reopen their economies.
Researchers say there are reasons why summer might not make a dent in COVID-19 infection rates.
Because this is a novel virus, without population immunity, scientists can’t expect to see a full suppression of transmission based on seasonality.
Though certain environmental conditions might be less conducive to spread from surfaces during summer months, the sheer fact that so many people are susceptible may not make as much of a difference because person-to-person spread will continue.
They say that it will be important that even in the summer months, states remain vigilant regarding the number of cases that are occurring with full situational awareness of the rate of hospitalizations, to prevent hospitals from going into a stress mode of functioning.
One author of the research is Dionne Gesink, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health.
The study is published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal.
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