In a new study, researchers found that individual behavior will have a big effect on preventing a large second wave of COVID-19 infections.
In fact, maintaining social distancing and other interventions such as the use of face masks and hand hygiene could remove the need for future lockdowns.
The findings also show that in countries that have not yet reached the peak of active cases, lockdowns must remain in place for at least 60 days and deconfinement must be gradual in order to decrease the risk of second waves.
They found that social empowerment through the use of masks, hand hygiene, and social distancing, is key to stopping viral transmission.
The research was conducted by a team at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal).
Several countries that initially imposed strict lockdown measures to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in the process of lifting them.
However, how and when to ease the restrictions is a difficult decision—a delicate balance between the need to reactivate the economy and the risk of a second wave of infections that could overwhelm healthcare systems.
In this study, the team presented projections based on a model that divides the population into seven groups: susceptible, quarantined, exposed, infectious not detected, reported infectious and confined, recovered, and dead.
It also allows for the simulation of both the degree of population confinement and different post-confinement strategies.
The use of face masks, hand hygiene and ‘shelter in place’ mandates have already demonstrated benefits. The aim of this study was to quantitatively evaluate their relevance as containment strategies.
The results clearly show that the length of the first confinement will affect the timing and magnitude of subsequent waves and that gradual deconfinement strategies always result in a lower number of infections and deaths, when compared to a very fast deconfinement process.
The results show that, even in countries that do not have the resources to test and trace all cases and contacts, social empowerment through the use of masks, hand hygiene and social distancing, is key to stopping viral transmission.
Simulations also show that loss of immunity to the virus will have big effects on the spacing between epidemic waves—if immunity has a long duration (one year instead of a few months), then the time between the epidemic waves will double.
The model considered total lockdowns and used data available until May 25, but did not take into account a possible effect of temperatures on viral transmission.
One author of the study is Xavier Rodó, the head of ISGlobal’s Climate and Health program.
The study is published in Nature Human Behaviour.
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