Scientists find key predictors for severe COVID-19

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Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic progressive lung disease causing long-term breathing problems.

There are currently more than 1.2 million people with a COPD diagnosis in the UK but up to three times as many could be undiagnosed, according to the NHS.

In a recent study from UCL, researchers found that COPD is the greatest risk factor for severe COVID-19 among hospitalized patients.

In addition, shortness of breath (dyspnoea) is the only symptom of COVID-19 strongly linked to severe cases of the disease.

The study is published in MedRxiv. The lead author is an academic clinical fellow Dr. Vageesh Jain (UCL Institute for Global Health).

Of pre-existing health conditions associated with COVID-19 severity, COPD was the most strongly predictive for both severe disease and ICU admission, despite its low prevalence in severe disease and ICU groups (4.5% and 9.7%, respectively).

Those with COPD were 6.4 times more likely to develop severe disease, and 17.8 times more likely to be admitted to ICU.

The current review of seven studies from China included a total of 1813 patients, with 116 ICU patients and 315 patients classified as severe, all hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19.

They found that the prevalence of dyspnoea in ICU patients was 67.2%, compared with 10.2% in the non-ICU group.

Patients with dyspnoea were 3.7 times more likely to have severe disease and 6.6 times more likely to have an ICU admission, compared to those without.

The analysis showed that dyspnoea is the only symptom strongly predictive for both severe disease and ICU admission, and could be a useful symptom to help guide clinical management decisions.

The team says whilst dyspnoea was not a particularly common symptom in COVID-19 patients (the most common symptoms for non-severe cases being fever and cough), its strong links to both severe disease and ICU admission may help clinicians discriminate between severe and non-severe COVID-19 cases.

In addition, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and hypertension, more prevalent conditions in the study population, were also strongly predictive for both severe disease and ICU admission.

Those with CVD and hypertension were 4.4 and 3.7 times more likely to have an ICU admission, respectively, compared to patients without the comorbidity.

The researchers say findings can be used to inform targeted public health and clinical management strategies, through the prioritization of those at the highest risk of severe illness with COVID-19.

The findings also showed that underlying health conditions do not all present the same risk of severe COVID-19, with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) being the greatest risk factor for severe COVID-19 among hospitalized patients.

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